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From Lima to Paris 2015: challenges on the road to 2°C

Nature Climate Change releases today one of the most comprehensive assessments of the timing and amount of greenhouse gas emissions for each of the world’s major economies, considering both currently discussed pledges and scenarios that limit future temperature rise to 2°C.

The study is the result of a three year research project led by FEEM and involving six research institutions with their different modeling tools, as summarised in the 2-minute videos below, and more extensively in a press release and a dedicated Policy Brief also released today.

Global peaking of emissions around 2020 calls for steep technological shifts

Different global emission pathways can be compatible with the 2°C target, meaning that there is some flexibility in the timing of emission reductions. However, cumulative global emissions over the 21st century must be kept within a tight budget. The technical and economic challenges of transitioning to a pathway that can achieve the necessary long-term emission reductions are exacerbated if the transition is delayed, as illutstrated in Section 1 of the Policy Brief.

Very different emissions pathways among various regions

Important factors are the differences between national policies in the near term, the regional baseline emissions in the long term, regional economic capabilities, and the availability of mitigation options. Section 2 of the Policy Brief details these regional factors and the potential regional mitigation patterns.

Burden sharing is critical to avoid disproportionate economic impacts on some regions

It is possible to pursue both efficiency and equity goals by harmonizing international carbon pricing mechanisms while allocating emission allowances based on equity principles. The mitigation burden of disadvantaged regions can also be addressed through dedicated financial support for the required low-carbon investments. Examples for burden sharing approaches and a discussion of regional implications are provided in Section 3 of the Policy Brief.

This post first appeared on Re3: http://re3.feem.it/getpage.aspx?id=7098